It has been a month of waiting and watching since I posted a “Touch Down” on the S&P in January. Guess what? We are still around the same levels. We haven’t really gone anywhere. Could this be the bottom? According to Mark Arbeter of S&P500, we are close to the market bottom, given that the Investor’s Intelligence ratio has never gone so low and has never seen such bearishness since 2002. Investor’s have simply capitulated. What investor did not believe that we were in a recession? Mark said that now we simply have to wait for institutional money to flow in to give confirmation to all this information.

I, myself, took a break; however, I did not sell although “all hope seemed lost!” Ahh ha! Those dividend paying ETFs kept my sanity going. Standard and Poors said that we have a month or two of solidification to go. This leaves us to really see some action at the end of April or May.

The chart of the Nasdaq shows that it too has finally reached the bottom of its monthly channel.
the Dow has reached monthly horizontal supprt and a monthly trend line. At the same time from the down side, it has reach 1.27 Fid. downward extension.
NASDAQ:

DOW:

We are at why the heck are you gonna sell now territory in the Dow Jones and S&P 500. In the last blog I mentioned that the financial sector is near its bottom and that we are waiting for the RSI break out; we are still waiting for it, but I went in earlier. Also, the best thing to do at this time is to get back in SPY and/or DIA and hold it, until we make new highs.

I highly doubt that we are going into a recession because we just came out of one seven years ago. The only thing we had last year is that we make all time highs, and then some backing and filling.

I am still holding AT&T (T), I’ve never sold it despite it went to $37, and now it is back in the $41-$42 area. Our target is $46.67!

I also took a position in PEY (Powershares High yield Dividend Achievers). Most of their portfolio is composed of the financials, but they are also diversified in many other sectors as well. What I like about it is that they have companies who consistently increase their dividend every year and are stable. This fund is weighted according to their dividend yield, not by market capitalization. They pay a monthly dividend of about a 9%!

It is much better than putting it in the bank, which usually pays only 4%. It is concentrated 53% in the financial sector and about 32% in the utilities sector. Those sectors will dramatically affect PEY, which is why I am keeping an eye on the financials right now; specifically the Weekly RSI on XLF, because if it rallies about the Weekly RSI trend line, then we will be on good ground.

———————–YAHOO!———————–
Daily:
Strong $24.74 horizontal support-base from August 13 2007 to November 12, 2007. Daily Chart Pattern called an Ascending Triangle is forming. This is a bullish sign! The top part of the triangle is flat and the bottom is slanting up, showing that the Bears are losing; we just need one more day testing for the third time the bottom of the Acending Triangle and all is well. We’ve entered earlier around $26-$27 because of other reasons.

Weekly:

Possible Weekly Inverted Head and shoulders forming. The right tip is consolidating at 78.2% fib, exactly where there is strong horizontal support.

Extra- Video Update on AT&T from Standard and Poors:

mms://a1802.v19724b.c19724.g.vm.akamaistream.net/7/1802/19724/v0001/streamlogics.download.akamai.com/25711/S_and_P/sptv-survey-108.wmv

I am a buyer of YHOO right here @ 30.70 as a position trade for the upcoming IPO of alibaba.com which is supposed to come live on Tues Nov 6th. Yahoo! owns 39% of alibaba and is looking to add another 10% (if I recall correctly) of the allotment subscription. I am keeping a tight stop loss around 30 dollars.

VLCM just dropped 10 points in after hours trading after reporting their earnings. COH dropped off a few points last week after they reported. Many of these companies are reporting good earnings but have been punished by the market.

I believe these two retailers will come back nicely and at current levels show real value. I am building positions in both.

The market on $SPX and the Dow did rally yesterday as I believed it would; however, today’s economic data of the Nonfarm Employment Change (NFP) seemed to have messed up my trade. The NFP at -4% suggests that nobody created new jobs for people; however, isn’t school back in? Aren’t high school student and most college student working on their homework rather than working for the paycheck?

In addition to this, at the same time we have the NASDAQ breaking out up above resistance and leading the market along with some other sectors, and if the economic data was so “bad” isn’t that a “good” thing if we really are suppose to be looking ahead? So, I bought some Jamaican Champagne Kola drink from the store (naturally flavored) and a beef patty and cocoa bread, and then I slept on it, dreaming about the markets and people debating in my head about different points of views about how the market works.

Ok, so, the NASDAQ fell back down to support levels and some other stocks I’ve been monitoring. It gapped down to the level of support where I’ve been waiting to buy it at; so, I feel great about that! The NASDAQ will lead the markets once again. I like the way it just stopped at support. Just to be sure about this “rose in the mud” scenario and/or this divergence from the bearish sentiment, I am waiting for a green day next week or some other feature to buy the NASDAQ ETF symbol QQQQ. It stopped at 61.8% Fibonacci level and some of the bulls technically “should” have entered in today at $47.95 (QQQQ) and/or $2556.59. I am a reluctant bull for that market since I am already in other market positions. So, I’ll wait for next week’s rally.

More Insider Buying on TIE:
Terry Worrell buy 14,000 shares August 16, 2007: http://www.form4oracle.com/company?cik=0001011657&ticker=tie
Load up and enjoy!

Time to add the Dow index back to portfolio.

All of this Gloom and Doom is a Big Hoax and a Scape Goat for what every malipulation is going on. Some blamed China in Februrary when the market fell then; when I traded Currencies at the same time others said it was Unwinding of the Yen Carry trades. What are “they” blaming now? Housing? Housing is suppose to be bad for a while. How many times can they blame the same thing. What is really going on: People were taking profit from the Dow; others panicked. Now buyers are coming back.

Picked up shares of EMC Corporation (EMC) because the valuation and the fundamentals look much better than the other stocks I have been adding; and that is important right now in these recent market conditions. I would like for the Dow to fall to $12800 before rallying, so I am very sceptical about it yet I find myself buying stock; haha.