I’m Adding To My Positions EXM, CF, HERO
Statistics show that the markets rally 30% within 40 days after a bear market. Considering we just had the worst and fastest drop in history I expect a decent rebound is going to happen.
If you had picked up any of my picks in the last posting, you’d be up nicely right now.
Like I have said before, build your positions slowly and the bulk of the money will be made within the next 6 -18 months or 15-30 points higher on all of my alerts which ever comes first.
I added to some of my current positions which includes ANR, BTU, CF, CLF, DRYS, EXM, HERO, MEE, ICE.
Some CF info someone might find interesting. As I have mentioned in some other postings about CF, I’m retired from them after 33+ years. I had breakfast Monday with some of my friends still working there. I’m talking about the Florida location. They told me they had some new construction plans for some additional production capability starting soon. The significance of this is, during my last years of work, the plant had just about reached capacity. the company continues all the time in engineering improvements, but sometimes, you just have to add physical capacity. that’s what they’re getting ready to do.
Keep an eye on these guys. This is a well run company that knows how to go through tough times. their main product, DAP has probably slowed down on the commodity futures price, but I know roughly what it cost them to make the stuff, and they are making a killing.
Good luck guys.
Plus, they constantly improve their technology to lower the bottom line. I’ve seen this many times in the production area that I worked in.
I know it sounds like I’m a shill for the company, but I feel certain the stock price will continue to improve. I bought as much as I could afford.
How do you think CF compares to POT?
On your question of CF compared to POT. I’m not any kind of expert on the fertilizer industry, but I know a little about about the fertilizer industry in Florida, .. I do know that with any industry, when you control the supply of raw materials, you have a much better control of your future.
A little history of the fertilizer industry in Florida. I’m pretty sure in the US, Florida has the largest known reserves of phosphate rock, the stuff they make DAP, or “fertilizer”, from eventuallty. Over the last few years, 5-10, there were other producers that went out of business simply because they could’nt get any more phospahate ore to make the end product. IMC used to be one of the last big players. They’re biggest and only plus was they owned a lot of land to mine the rock. CF being the other big player. Mosiac that is also in the area bought out IMC a few years back. That was the only was they could remain a player. The only other producer in the state of Florida is north of here in White Springs FL. There’s other reserves in the US, but central Florida is the main one in the US. CF’s advantage in the industry, is that they have maybe 15 years of known reserves for mining, They don’t have to worry about buying raw rock from someone else, because there’s only Mosaic anyway, and they would be stupid to sell. That’s why everyione else except CF and Mosaic, and the company in White Springs FL is out of business. Also, a big plus for CF is the production personel working at this facility. There are many of them like me who have been working there all their lives, some over 40 years, many over 30 years. They know what they’re doing. They have learned how to use the low grade phosphate ore that’s available, and run with it.
I hope I haven’t bored you guys too much. If you want to know anything else about CF, ask me. if I know, I’ll tell you.
If any of you readers are interested, I got a little news about CF today, I heard they are about to , or have inked a deal with China, to sell them 800,000 tons of fertilizer. Thats about 3/4 year of production. If this is accurate, this is huge. I heard they beat out Mosaic, the only other viable competitor in the area.
They have cut short the bi-annual repair period in the area that I worked in. This means they need the production time mucho badly. Winter is the slow season in the fertilizer business, but come spring, its all out. The stock price is cheap now, close to a 52 week low. Do your due dillengence on this stock. They have excellent management, and low-low debt. Watch for it to creep up slowly.
Good luck guys.